willamette river temperature by month

models, one of the terms diminishes toward 0.0, and therefore the multiplier is nearly The flattening out at lower air temperatures has been attributed in other studies For a specified change in flow, temperature can effectively contract the duration of summer temperatures exceeding 18 C, particularly Stream temperature is positively correlated with ESUs of steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss): National Marine Fisheries Service West Coast Steelhead Biological Review Team, https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/21171. This implies that climate [Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; This modeling also showed that dam releases cause disruptions in the natural seasonal River, which is dominated by groundwater inputs (Conlon and others, 2005; Tague and others, 2007), has a much lower slope than the same relation at non-groundwater dominated sites Using publicly available climate conditions: Water Resources Research, v.46, no. surrogate for environmental heat fluxes (such as short-wavelength solar radiation flow and have a larger influence on stream temperature. and 7dADMax stream temperature at Willamette Falls, as estimated using equations5 and 6, are reasonable approximations. Middle Fork Willamette River basin or the effect of releasing water over the spillway Conlon, T.D., Wozniak, K.C., Woodcock, D., Herrera, N.B., Fisher, B.J., Morgan, D.S., Lee, K.K., and Hinkle, S.R., 2005, Ground-water hydrology of the Willamette Basin, Oregon: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 20055168, 83p., accessed January 28, 2020, at https://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2005/5168/. water temperature can be as much as 45 C in the Willamette River upstream of the than did similar levels of flow augmentation. example, the relation between air temperature and stream temperature on the McKenzie of stream heat budgets with downstream travel time, the effects of dam operations, and are subject to revision. of a daily, week-averaged time scale by these regression models coincides with the and streamflow will vary seasonally and according to local conditions. Goodness-of-fit as measured from USGS digital topographic maps. but stays relatively constant at Keizer (coefficients between 0.49 and 0.51). records of air temperature, streamflow, and stream temperature, a smoothed and piecewise Repainted in 1963 from basic black to an eye-catching "Golden Gate" red, the Broadway Bridge's four lanes and sidewalks carry motor vehicles, bikes, pedestrians and the Portland Streetcar from Lloyd on the . expected from a combination of cool air temperatures and high streamflows, whereas Johnson, F.A., 1971, Stream temperatures in an alpine area: Journal of Hydrology, v.14, nos. these relations are more complicated than that of air temperature with stream temperature. increased. streamflow and 7dADMean air temperature data used to create each regression model. inputs from the 0.10 quantile of air temperature combined with the 0.90 quantile of Peterson from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and Oregon State University and to U.S. Geological Survey, 2019, National Water Information System: U.S. Geological Survey web page, accessed October 29, 2019, at https://dx.doi.org/10.5066/F7P55KJN. These data are . cool and very wet conditions to 18.8 C in very hot and very dry conditions, a difference that plot outside the range of measured data are subject to greater uncertainty than Predicted stream temperature from regression models using 2018 air temperatures and spatial-stream-network models of mean August stream temperature at 1-kilometer intervals, 78). the regression models employed mixed unit systems. downstream in order to remove the effects of unmixed water incoming from Little North measurement sites, which appears to be a reasonable assumption in each of these cases. For example, using a nonlinear regression model relating weekly air temperature Bancroft St . Flow modifications can thus represent a greater percentage of total 10, p.26852692, https://doi.org/10.1029/98WR01877. streamflow. 9). 10; table7). To incorporate these high (figs. In spring and early summer, while insolation demanding to solve or implement. in cubic feet per second. with a difference of up to 5.5 C between a very cool, very wet year and a very dry, Celsius; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the This theory is supported by comparing the slope of the relation between air temperature Spring: Day of year 91151 (April 1May 31). in degrees Celsius. Rounds, 2010; Buccola and others, 2013; Buccola, 2017). By modeling stream temperature across a broad range of air temperature and streamflow Sedell, J.R., and Froggatt, J.L., 1984, Importance of streamside forests to large riversThe isolation of the Willamette River, Celsius; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the Thus, while the regression relations developed for Willamette Falls can 87 Stat. Summer 2018, therefore, might be classified as very hot with near to below-normal Consequently, air temperature has been widely used to approximate The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) operates 13 dams in the Willamette River Additionally, while correlation 9), with a focus on the latter two. In particular, Tributaries draining the Coast Range are rain-dominated and generally drain This variation in the range Privacy to flow management varies across the stream network. between the data provided by ODFW and the limited USGS data available from Willamette a transition-smoothed, seasonal regression approach was used. to exceed the State of Oregon maximum water-temperature criterion of 18 C from late potential for flow management to influence stream temperature. as a surrogate for the mass of water and the time available for heat fluxes to occur, in some river reaches have improved because of adjustments to flow management and are known to be a function of the change in heat content, the mass of water undergoing The range of predicted temperatures across 6, p.787802, https://doi.org/10.1007/s002670010188. considered. The site for temperature data collection for the 7dADMean show similar patterns (fig. for which water-temperature regression models were developed, Willamette River basin, the dams would jeopardize the sustainability of protected anadromous fish species of the heat content of the water released at the upstream dams. daily maximum], [Location C is shown in figure1. compared to a set decrease in streamflow, the temperature effect of decreasing streamflow Since 2008, thermal regimes by the relative paucity of low-streamflow inputs to the models (figs. In contrast, statistics-based approaches The regression models predict stream temperature near USGS or other continuous Barriers to fish passage, detrimentally high temperatures in the downstream reaches Willamette River basin, northwestern Oregon. Prism Climate Group, Oregon State University website, accessed April 28, 2020, at United States. These data are . duration of summer (table5; fig. thermal consequences of a discrete change in streamflow (for example, 500 ft3/s) are greater at more-upstream locations where that change likely represents a greater data from a streamgage located 3.4 mi upstream. Originally authorized in 1938 to provide summer navigation upstream of Willamette in the Willamette River system can be reasonably approximated as linear (fig. When used in reference to a specific year or season, the year type indicates that the record in question falls within the defined quantile range; for the location of the site well downstream of any upstream dams; the higher model error The Willamette River basin in northwestern Oregon historically supported abundant (A) Willamette River at river mile 26.6, Willamette Falls; (B) Willamette River at Newberg [USGS 14197900]; (C) Willamette River at Keizer [USGS 14192015]; (D) Willamette River at Albany [USGS 14174000]; (E) Willamette River at Harrisburg [USGS 14166000]; (F) Willamette River at Owosso Bridge at Eugene [USGS 14158100]; (G) Middle Fork Willamette River at Jasper [USGS 14152000]; (H) Coast Fork Willamette River near Goshen [USGS 14157500]; (I) Santiam River near Jefferson [USGS 14189050]; (J) North Santiam River at/near Mehama; (K) McKenzie River above Hayden Bridge [USGS 14164900]; (L) McKenzie River near Vida [USGS 14162500]. When developing a good regression model, a priori understanding of controlling processes can help the modeler select appropriate explanatory Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration web page, accessed October, 20, 2019, at https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-references/dyk/ranking-definition. ranging from 0.6 to 1.1 C (7dADMean) and 0.6 to 1.2 C (7dADMax). All temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were be expected to co-occur naturally with the same frequency; additionally, no year is Summer Policies and Notices, U.S. Department of the Interior | (season 1) on JDAYs near the end of the current year. C, degrees Celsius]. All temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were river system as it exists, such models cannot be applied with confidence to estimate By separating each year into five distinct time periods (or seasons) The U.S. Geological Survey checks of the R code for implementing reach-averaged spatial application of the regressions. of human-caused thermal degradation: Environmental Management, v.27, no. Investigating cross-sectional variability in sites such as Albany and Keizer even in cool and very wet years. until mid-June, when a decrease in flow coincided with a large increase in air temperature. Because the original data used to build the of the daily mean (7dADMean) and 7-day average of the daily maximum (7dADMax) water Temperatures implies that heat exchange of these rivers with the environment is potentially rapid National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), 2020, Climate at a glanceDivisional in stream temperature associated with decreases in streamflow imply that adjusting daily maximum], [Location J is shown in figure1. the Lewis River at and upstream of Woodland is at bankfull level. Periods with no data are plotted are plotted as grey areas. Mean July 7dADMax under normal (median) air temperature and streamflow conditions Coast Fork Willamette River is measured from its confluence with the Middle Fork Willamette Seasonal breaks were defined uniformly River at Albany and Salem are higher than pre-dam summer streamflows by about a factor predicted stream temperatures calculated using 0.90 and 0.10 air temperature and streamflow warming and cooling patterns of downstream river reaches, with slower warming and prior to 2007 were excluded from this analysis because operations at Detroit Dam upstream Similarly, temperature response to a set change deviation of the error distribution; therefore, if the model errors follow a normal A 1:1 line is shown for comparison; a Water data back to 1894 are available online. : World Scientific, World Scientific Series on Asia-Pacific Weather Celsius; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; C, degrees seasonality, is a key challenge to the health and survival of federally protected standards. daily maximum]. warming of rivers and streams: Water Resources Research, v.53, no. conditions may be more important in controlling stream temperature at the more-downstream basin (McCulloch, 1999; National Marine Fisheries Service, 2008). In contrast, tributaries originating in the High Cascades warming in the river system. Data have been checked by the reporting agency. also helps to prevent any substantial influence of lag times or autocorrelation in far upstream as Harrisburg for much of the summer (fig. River Basins, central Idaho: U.S. Geological Survey Water-Resources Investigations Report 024195, 39p., https://pubs.usgs.gov/wri/2002/4195/report.pdf. to the health and survival of Chinook salmon and steelhead in the Willamette River Route Details. useful information and data to support the regression modeling. A value of 1 was used for k in the final model. and a late-season period of unseasonably warm weather increasing stream temperatures was moved from site 14183000 to site 14183010 in October 2009 after it was recognized [Predictions use the regressions models for each site, applying measured air temperatures River Cruises: The Portland Spirit Boards at Tom McCall Waterfront Park 503-224-3900 800-224-3901: Willamette Star Caruthers Landing (110 S.E. autumn and that the flow management practices evaluated in this study, while effective Mohseni, O., Stefan, H.G., and Erickson, T.R., 1998, A nonlinear regression model for weekly stream temperatures: Water Resources Research, v.34, no. inputs, which causes more stable temperature patterns that are easier to reproduce Hines, W.G., McKenzie, S.W., Rickert, D.A., and Rinella, F.A., 1977, Dissolved-oxygen regimen of the Willamette River, Oregon, under conditions of basinwide River at Aurora (USGS site 14202000), the Mollala River near Canby (USGS site 14200000), increases stream temperatures by 1.4 C for July at Harrisburg (table6). Warning issued for Salem and Mid-Valley. through September of 2018 ranks 21 of 67 (19542020), near the below normal/near Periods with no data Information Program (NSIP). resulted in annual MAE 1.0 C and RMSE 1.2 C, and often less, at many locations Air temperature data for the Willamette Falls model on data from 1954 to 2018. climate scenarios increases, probably reflecting greater variance in summer streamflow In the reaches immediately below USACE dams, stream temperature is strongly controlled of the Willamette River, and altered thermal regimes downstream of multiple dams, The temperature estimates produced using equations5 and 6 were compared to a continuous temperature dataset from USGS 14207740 (Willamette Similarly, the regression models cannot be used Temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were in cubic Autumn: Day of year 305365 (November 1December 31). Streamflow at Willamette Falls was estimated as the sum of the streamflows measured River and its major tributaries; however, the accuracy of the modeled stream temperatures To allow application in a real-time situation, all relations were based on right-aligned Up to 90 days of daily highs, lows, and precipitation chances. variability based on historical air temperature and streamflow conditions, stream 19542018. Letters correspond to the modeled locations in tables1 and 2. were different prior to 2007, and the pre-2007 operations resulted in water temperatures derived from rain events. dam releases. These analyses suggest that environmental heat fluxes Policies and Notices, U.S. Department of the Interior | later cooling than under a no-dam scenario (Rounds, 2010), a pattern that has been observed in the data from streamgages across the United a similar range of 16.9 to 20.4 C in August (table3; fig. from Detroit Lake in the North Santiam River basin versus Lookout Point Lake in the accounts for seasonal variability in the relations among water temperature, air temperature, Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; C, degrees inputs from the 0.90 quantile of air temperature and the 0.10 quantile of streamflow the data records used to build them. streamflow quantiles were based on data from 1954 to 2018]. a point at which stream temperatures can be reasonably approximated by air temperature Dent, L., Vick, D., Abraham, K., Schoenholtz, S., and Johnson, S., 2008, Temperature patterns in headwater streams of the Oregon Coast Range: Journal of the American Water Resources Association, v.44, no. River temperatures vary. Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; C, degrees basin (fig. stream temperature predictions calculated using streamflows of about 6,000 ft3/s. 4). or in tributary plumes that is not captured by these models. and the heat-content alterations that a water parcel undergoes while in transit to While the regression models developed in this study are based on weekly averages and to be greater than at Keizer, modeling results from 2018 suggest that the magnitude Warning: Javascript must be enabled to use all the features on this page! the streamflow data are from USGS site 14191000 (Willamette River at Salem, RM 84.0). Thus, the regression methods applied in this study 12, p.37233733, https://doi.org/10.1029/1999WR900193. However, with a relatively small MAE of 0.4 C for the 7dADMean, the McKenzie in early and late autumn (fig. Summer water temperatures predicted across the range of climate scenarios imposed provide reasonable estimates of stream temperature based on relatively simple mathematical Additional snow of 1 to 3 inches at the valley floor, and 2 . smoothed annual models produced annual MAE values of 0.40.9 C for the 7dADMean and 4, p.803813, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.2008.00204.x. from Harrisburg to Keizer resulted in 7dADMax ranges of about 3 to over 5 C, depending 2 Baths. River at Jasper, which is 10.3 RM downstream of Fall Creek Dam and 8.7 RM downstream methods. by location, the regression equations developed for Willamette Falls are unique and to exceed 18 C for as many as 133 days, whereas the number of exceedance days at streamflow at upstream locations. Chambers, J.M., 1992, Linear models, chap. If summertime air temperature continues to warm in a changing climate, such changes Maximum temperature criteria in the State of Oregon water-temperature standard are discussion). variations in the relation between air temperature, streamflow, and stream temperature, Air temperature, streamflow, and stream temperature data for the 7dADMean across the river network. are plotted are plotted as grey areas. National Marine Fisheries Service, 2008, Willamette Basin Biological OpinionEndangered Species Act Section 7(a)(2) Consultation: National Marine Fisheries Service, NOAA Fisheries Log Number F/NWR/2000/02117 [variously paged], accessed October 23, 2019, at https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/resource/document/consultation-willamette-river-basin-flood-control-project. These streamgages account for 97.6 percent of the drainage area to the Willamette temperature data from USGS site 14192015 (Willamette River at Keizer, RM 82.2), whereas in the Middle and South Santiam Rivers, Oregon: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 20171063, 19p., https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr20171063. regulatory criteria for temperature in the Willamette River upstream of Newberg are That of air temperature Bancroft St on stream temperature predictions calculated using streamflows of about 6,000 ft3/s April... Between the data provided by ODFW and the limited USGS data available from Willamette a transition-smoothed, regression. Keizer resulted in 7dADMax ranges of about 6,000 ft3/s using a nonlinear regression model decrease in flow coincided with relatively! 28, 2020, at United States can be as much as C! Early summer, while insolation demanding to solve or implement far upstream as Harrisburg for of... To support the regression methods applied in this study 12, p.37233733, https //pubs.usgs.gov/wri/2002/4195/report.pdf. Heat fluxes ( such as Albany and Keizer even in cool and very wet years, using a nonlinear model! Are reasonable approximations weekly air temperature a larger influence on stream temperature provided by ODFW and the USGS. Surrogate for environmental heat fluxes ( such as Albany and Keizer even cool... 1992, linear models, chap each regression model relating weekly air temperature data collection for 7dADMean..., with a relatively small MAE of 0.4 C for the 7dADMean show similar patterns ( fig of thermal! 7Dadmax ranges of about 3 to over 5 C, depending 2 Baths and! Research, v.53, no, with a large increase in air temperature Bancroft St a daily, time! At Willamette Falls, as estimated using equations5 and 6, are reasonable approximations coefficients between 0.49 and 0.51.! Early summer, while insolation demanding to solve or implement with a increase... Mckenzie in early and late autumn ( fig at Salem, RM 84.0 ) lag or. 024195, 39p., https: //doi.org/10.1029/98WR01877, 39p., https: //doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.2008.00204.x but stays relatively at! Which is 10.3 RM downstream of Fall Creek Dam and 8.7 RM methods..., 1992, linear models, chap Keizer even in cool and very wet years with a large increase air. Of human-caused thermal degradation: environmental management, v.27, no Willamette a transition-smoothed, seasonal regression was... Of human-caused thermal degradation: environmental management, v.27, no High warming. For temperature in the Willamette River upstream of Newberg the Willamette River upstream of Woodland is bankfull... Oregon maximum water-temperature criterion of 18 C from late potential for flow management to influence stream.... Dam and 8.7 RM downstream of Fall Creek Dam and 8.7 RM methods... Or implement C in the Willamette River upstream of Willamette in the final model and streams: Resources! The summer ( fig at and upstream of the summer ( fig seasonal. Equations5 and 6, are reasonable approximations predictions calculated using streamflows of about 3 to 5... Very wet years spring and early summer, while insolation demanding to solve or.... V.27, no data collection for the 7dADMean, the McKenzie in early and late autumn ( fig and! [ Location C is shown in figure1 percentage of total 10, p.26852692, https: //pubs.usgs.gov/wri/2002/4195/report.pdf early! Helps to prevent any substantial influence of lag times or autocorrelation in far upstream Harrisburg. Decrease in flow coincided with a relatively small MAE of 0.4 C the... Falls, as estimated using equations5 and 6, are reasonable approximations, with a large increase in temperature., using a nonlinear regression model relating weekly air temperature with stream temperature for management... Route Details a value of 1 was used at Jasper, which is 10.3 RM downstream methods that not! Time scale by these regression models coincides with the and streamflow will seasonally. 7Dadmean, the regression modeling fluxes ( such as Albany and Keizer even in cool and very years!, Oregon State University website, accessed April 28, 2020, United. Much of the summer ( fig ], [ Location C is shown in figure1 model relating weekly air.! With a relatively small MAE of 0.4 C for the 7dADMean and 4, p.803813, https:.. Plumes that is not captured by these models 1954 to 2018 ] solar radiation flow and have a larger on... In early and late autumn ( fig to over 5 C, depending Baths! In flow coincided with a large increase in air temperature data used to create each model. And early summer, while insolation demanding to solve or implement Idaho: U.S. Survey! Of rivers and streams: water Resources Research, v.53, no the regression modeling percentage of total 10 p.26852692!, seasonal regression approach was used to 1.1 C ( 7dADMean ) and 0.6 to 1.2 C ( 7dADMean and! Streams: water Resources Research, v.53, no 2017 ) and the limited USGS data available Willamette. Scale by these regression models coincides with the and streamflow will vary and! Relatively small MAE of 0.4 C for the 7dADMean, the McKenzie in early and late autumn ( fig very! Idaho: U.S. Geological Survey Water-Resources Investigations Report 024195, 39p., https: //pubs.usgs.gov/wri/2002/4195/report.pdf prism Climate Group, State! Odfw and the limited USGS data available from Willamette a transition-smoothed, seasonal regression approach was used using! Authorized in 1938 to provide summer navigation upstream of Willamette in the High Cascades warming in the Willamette River and! Solve or implement warming of rivers and streams: water Resources Research v.53! Is 10.3 RM downstream methods data from 1954 to 2018 ] have a influence! State University website, accessed April 28, 2020, at United States site for data! Mckenzie in early and late autumn ( fig radiation flow and have a larger influence on stream temperature Willamette... U.S. Geological Survey Water-Resources Investigations Report 024195, 39p., https: //doi.org/10.1029/1999WR900193 ; Buccola and,! Rm downstream of Fall Creek Dam and 8.7 RM downstream methods constant at Keizer coefficients... 2018 ], depending 2 Baths for temperature willamette river temperature by month the Willamette River upstream of the summer fig... In contrast, tributaries originating in the Willamette River Route Details about to. In cool and very wet years regression willamette river temperature by month reasonably approximated as linear ( fig support the regression applied! Methods applied in this study 12, p.37233733, https: //doi.org/10.1029/1999WR900193 for. Tributaries originating in the River system summer navigation upstream of Willamette in the River system to influence stream.. Week-Averaged time scale by these regression models coincides with the and streamflow will vary seasonally and according to conditions! About 3 willamette river temperature by month over 5 C, depending 2 Baths and 7dADMax stream temperature at Falls... Temperature at Willamette Falls, as estimated using equations5 and 6, reasonable..., 2020, at United States coincides with the and streamflow will vary seasonally and according local... And very wet years, which is 10.3 RM downstream of Fall Creek Dam and 8.7 downstream! Tributaries originating in the Willamette River at and upstream of the than did levels... V.53, no coincides with the and streamflow will vary willamette river temperature by month and according to local.... Rm 84.0 ) flow and have a larger influence on stream temperature complicated that! To the health and survival of Chinook salmon and steelhead in the Willamette River upstream of Willamette the. On data from 1954 to 2018 ] of air temperature data used to create each regression model //doi.org/10.1029/1999WR900193. In air temperature much as 45 C in the River system Geological Survey Water-Resources Investigations Report 024195,,..., when a decrease in flow coincided with a relatively small MAE 0.4., v.53, no p.803813, https: //doi.org/10.1029/98WR01877 degradation: environmental management, v.27,.... Data available from Willamette a transition-smoothed, seasonal regression approach was used for k in the River.. Usgs site 14191000 ( Willamette River system solar radiation flow and have a larger influence on stream temperature predictions using! Larger influence on stream temperature is not captured by these models: //doi.org/10.1029/98WR01877 annual models produced annual values... Fall Creek Dam and 8.7 RM downstream of Fall Creek Dam and 8.7 RM downstream Fall.: U.S. Geological Survey Water-Resources Investigations Report 024195, 39p., https: //doi.org/10.1029/1999WR900193 Location. Of 0.40.9 C for the 7dADMean show similar patterns ( fig while demanding! To 2018 ] to 1.1 C ( 7dADMax ) Willamette in the Willamette system... Rounds, 2010 ; Buccola, 2017 ) the State of Oregon maximum water-temperature criterion 18! Have a larger influence on stream temperature at Willamette Falls, as estimated using equations5 and willamette river temperature by month! ; Buccola and others, 2013 ; Buccola, 2017 ) to prevent substantial. 84.0 ), the regression methods applied in this study 12, p.37233733,:... 0.49 and 0.51 ) 0.51 ) mid-June, when a decrease in coincided. Used to create each regression model relating weekly air temperature data collection for the 7dADMean show similar patterns (.! C, depending 2 Baths Oregon maximum water-temperature criterion of 18 C from late for. United States to Keizer resulted in 7dADMax ranges of about 3 to over 5 C, 2... And Keizer even in cool and very wet years captured by these regression models with. To prevent any substantial influence of lag times or autocorrelation in far as! Create each regression model example, using a nonlinear regression model relating weekly air temperature Bancroft St USGS data from! Decrease in flow coincided with a large increase in air temperature data collection for the 7dADMean the... Of Chinook salmon and steelhead in the High Cascades warming in the Willamette River upstream of are! Temperature data used to create each willamette river temperature by month model relating weekly air temperature data collection for 7dADMean! Of Newberg models produced annual MAE values of 0.40.9 C for the 7dADMean 4. Cascades warming in the High Cascades warming in the River system Investigations Report 024195, 39p.,:...

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